WOW! what are the odds?

Discussion in 'World of SPAM' started by ceneret0023, Jul 22, 2009.

  1. ceneret0023

    ceneret0023 Level III

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    i'm listening to my ipod with all my songs on shuffle and i only have 2 songs by an endless sporadic and they both played one after the other xD Now it's not as crazy cuz i only have like 650 songs but still it's the first time i've ever had it happen xD

    EDIT: Nevermind i have a devil ipod! i have 666 songs exactly on it!!!
     
  2. lanabubalo13

    lanabubalo13 Level II

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    1 / (666^2) * 100 = 0.000225450676 chance :D
     
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  3. ceneret0023

    ceneret0023 Level III

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    wow thanks :) i probably could've figured that out myself but i was being lazy xD definitely +rep!
     
  4. Hally

    Hally Level IV

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    Actually not quite. That's ALMOST the odds of hearing the first song he heard, followed by the second song he heard. but not quite. Not sure why you multiplied by 100. I hate it when people do that, to "convert it to percent". Like you can't figure out that 0.2 = 20%. GAH.

    The odds of the first song you put on being an Endless Sporadic song is 1/333. The odds that the song AFTER that (provided shuffle doesn't repeat any until it's gone through them all) is 1/665. So 1/665*333.

    HOWEVER, that's NOT what we're trying to find. The first Endless Sporadic song could have happened ANYWHERE in the playing. For all intents and purposes, the chances that it plays two Endless Sporadic songs in a row is 1/665. That's only correct if, after playing the first Endless Sporadic song, it all resets.

    Which presents another thing to take into account, for practicality's sake. The longer it takes you to reach the first Endless Sporadic song, the higher the chances are that the NEXT song will also be Endless Sporadic. Consider: The 466th song is Endless Sporadic. That's the FIRST endless sporadic played in this shuffle session. The chances that the song AFTER is also endless sporadic is 1/200.

    So the MAXIMUM chance that the next song is endless Sporadic is 1/1, since, if song 665 is the first Endless Sporadic, the next one will also be. The minimum is 1/665. I believe it's safe to say that the actual chances that it'll be endless sporadic twice in a row is 1/333, since it's the midway point between the two. Grrrr that sounded sloppy. The first Endless Sporadic song averages out to being th-actually.. grrr. There's more to deal with, because there are two of them that you've got to place in the random playlist. I'm far too tired at the moment.

    Pando or Zer0 (or another genius) if you could look at my solution, and let me know what you think, that'd be great.


    So i stepped back from the problem, and wrote it down rather than jsut blindly jumping into it. The answer is a simple permutation/combination.
    There are 665 "positions" that the two songs can be together in your library, if the order is randomized (ie: They can be the first two, the last two, song 333 and 334, etc). The other 664 songs are also randomized, and they're placed randomly, and there are 664! combinations of this. So the amount of ways that the songs can be together is 664! * 665 * 2 (times two, because either of the two songs can be first). So 665! * 2. The total amount of ways it can be ordered is 666!. The odds then are 665!*2 / 666!, or 2/666 = 1/333. So my answer I said before was correct I believe
     
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  5. Rider

    Rider Level IV

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    Lol you really like math.
     
  6. Hally

    Hally Level IV

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    CRY

    I wanted rep

    Just like that other guy got for his wrong answer.

    I was proving his answer wrong, I posted my post, and Ceneret had already given him rep for it :(
     
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  7. ceneret0023

    ceneret0023 Level III

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    hally you'll get rep when i can give rep again xD if it makes you feel better though i can take his rep away by -repping him :)
     
  8. Ak*

    Ak* Level IV

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    never tell me the odds.... shut up 3cpo :D
     
  9. ceneret0023

    ceneret0023 Level III

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    look hally i even wrote myself a reminder to +rep you in the morning :) it's kinda big so ima put it in a spoiler :)

    [​IMG]
     
  10. Rhett

    Rhett Level IV

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    I'm going to use my imagination as to why you have a net.
     
  11. Synidaeum

    Synidaeum Level I

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    The true question is, why would anyone NOT have a net? I mean, catching midgets, fish, that ShamWoW guy while he's running from the cops while they try to arrest him for assaulting a prostitute...wait, what?

    Anyways, nets. The Ultimate Tool.
     
  12. ceneret0023

    ceneret0023 Level III

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    lol it's not a net it's the most comfortable hammock you'll ever lay in :) it's handmade from guatamala and i got it from a flea market and it is AMAZING!!!!! the only problem is my sprinklers go off way too much for me to have it outside right now cuz i don't wanna ruin it and i had it hanging up in my room kinda as decoration but it fell xD
     
  13. tharoux

    tharoux Level IV

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    Epic math skillzzzzzz :arf:
     
  14. Zer0

    Zer0 Level IV

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    Your odds are better than the odds of 1/(666^2) being the correct answer